# Climate & Conflict Analysis (2022)
_Mapping climate security hotspots_
Published: 2022-07-01
Live project: https://2022.climate-conflict.org/
What is the relation between climate change and violent conflicts? Which role do socio-economic scope conditions play in exacerbating climate impact? How can we allow analysts and policymaker to make better decisions — based on heterogenous, multi-faceted information sources?
## Key visuals
- World map blending climate impact, scope conditions and conflict layers into combined colored dots
- Overview of the Climate & Conflict web app pages, from introduction and hotspot map to the Sahel case study
- Annotated Sahel map with hand-drawn highlights linking climate change, scope conditions and conflict
- World regions plotted as eclipse glyphs positioned by climate impact, scope conditions and conflict for cluster analysis
- Core palette of yellow climate, red conflict and blue scope conditions applied to eclipse glyphs and maps
- Concept framework grouping indicators into climate, scope conditions and conflict dimensions
- Glyph design of eclipse-style region marks with climate, scope conditions and conflict score bars
- Visual-language exploration sketching shapes and glyphs to encode climate, scope conditions and conflict
- Drought map of Nigeria showing SPEI water-balance change 2000 to 2019 with a severity distribution chart
- Sahel incident map of violent conflicts 2000 to 2021 with a vertical timeline of events
- World map layering climate impact in yellow, scope conditions in blue and conflicts in red
- Causal network linking changing weather patterns and population growth to shifting migration routes
## Premise
There is significant overlap between countries most affected by climate change and those most at risk of violent conflict. Climate change in the context of conflict is considered a potential “threat multiplier” and the interplay between climate and conflict has received increasing attention from researchers and policymakers over the last two decades.
In collaboration with the PREVIEW team at the German Federal Foreign Office, we set out to explore and visually explain the relationship between climate change and conflict. As part of the project, a consistent, expressive data design language was developed and first demonstrated in a web application introducing the topic to wider audiences.
We are now in the process of guiding the scientific development of a custom climate security index from a design perspective, and advising on the application of the Data Design Language for analysts and policymakers.
## Web application
As a first publicly visible output, we produced a web application that introduces the topic and methodology, helps to identify global hotspots and introduces a concrete case study.
![Overview of the Climate & Conflict web app pages, from introduction and global hotspot map to the Sahel case study]()
![Global dot-density map highlighting hotspot regions by climate impact, scope conditions and conflict overlaps]()
A key piece is the global multi-layer map, which shows the overlaps between climate impact, scope conditions (unfavorable conditions increasing the likelihood of conflict) and existing conflicts.
This global view is complemented by an in-depth case study: the farmer-herder conflicts in the Sahel region. By unfolding the layers of influence step-by-step, we can explain in detail how the long-term effects of climate change can have adverse effects in already conflict ridden regions, or might even spark new conflicts.
![World map layering climate impact in yellow, scope conditions in blue and conflicts in red as colored dots]()
![Title graphic for the German Federal Foreign Office Climate & Conflict data design language]()
## Data Design Language
At the same time, we are considering more fundamentally how the PREVIEW team and the German Foreign Office can communicate data more effectively. To this end, we are developing a Data Design Language, which provides an expressive repertoire of design elements, guidelines and components for effective data communication.
All fundamental design decisions are stored as design tokens, defining a single source of truth, and allowing consistent reuse across projects, applications, and media channels.
![Model-aspect, diverging and sequential color scales broken down by hue, chroma and luminance]()
![Design-token docs for functional colors accent, filtered-out and not-available with CSS variables and hex values]()
![Core palette: yellow climate, red conflict, blue scope conditions, applied to eclipse glyphs and maps]()
![Annotated Sahel map with hand-drawn highlights linking climate change, scope conditions and conflict in the text]()
## Rollout and Impact
The Data Design Language is documented in the form of a living styleguide, and currently implemented for internal products.
By supplying a toolkit and design repertoire, rather than just one-off projects, we enable the PREVIEW team to take real ownership and put design to use in the organization. Our design-token-centric approach makes it easy to adapt to the needs of different stakeholders and supply themes and templates for a variety of tools and platforms.
Contact us, in case you want to learn more about this approach and its benefits.
## Credits
In collaboration with the [Flavio Gortana](https://flavio.is/), the PREVIEW team at the [German Federal Foreign Office](https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en), [Kaldera](https://www.kaldera.dev/), [Maplecroft](https://www.maplecroft.com/), the [Potsdam Insititute for Climate Impact research](https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en) (PIK) and the [University of the German Federal Armed Forces](https://www.unibw.de/home-en) (UniBW)
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[View on truth-and-beauty.net](https://truth-and-beauty.net/projects/climate-and-conflict-2022)